With the U.S. and the European Union (EU) imposing one of the toughest sanction regimes ever on Iran’s economic and financial lifeline, the world is inching closer to a potential catastrophic war at the heart of the Middle East. Meanwhile, Israel is suggesting a pre-emptive strike if sanctions fail to deter Iran’s nuclear program, while Tehran has vowed to retaliate on an international scale if it comes under attack.
However, determined to lift the economic siege and avoid a potential conflict, Iran has shown an increasing interest in reviving talks. Not only has Iran welcomed successive rounds of IAEA visit to its nuclear facilities, but it has also shown interest in engaging in substantive talks, with Turkey and Russia acting as primary interlocutors. It is high time for the West to re-think the sanctions track, and craft a real strategy byfinally giving true diplomacy a chance. This might be our last opportunity at avoiding tragedy.
Punishing the Iranian People
The economic sanctions are targeting Iran’s main exports, namely oil and gas, and increasingly freezing Iran’s central bank out of global financial markets. This has made it extremely difficult for Tehran to engage in large-scale, dollar-denominated international transactions, forcing Iran to rely on cumbersome and often uncertain third party financial institutions to undertake huge trade deals.
The strategic alternative to diplomacy is war, because sanctions are only a tactical maneuver to achieve strategic ends. However, sanctions, especially in the case of Iran, do nothing but to punish the innocent majority, embitter the society, and embolden the hawks at the expense of pragmatists.
Technically, Iran’s economy is just too big to cripple, without risking a global energy shock, and the Iranian’ nuclear complex is just too advanced to dismantle. Iran will be able to withstand heavy sanctions, because the country will still have billions of dollars to prop-up its military and advance its nuclear program. Therefore, it is crucial for the West to give diplomacy a chance and recalibrate a futile emphasis on sanctions
