"9/11" as it has come to be known is likely to have two enduring legacies, both of which will shape major features of international politics in the first half of the 21st century. First is the determined effort by the United States to accumulate as much hegemony as possible with a view to managing America's inevitable decline in the second half of the century by providing a soft landing. Second is the likely evolution of political Islam as a stable factor in regional politics.
The two enduring legacies of 9/11 outlined here, namely the struggle by the US to accumulate more and more national power in the first half of the 21st century and the birth pangs of a new generation of political Islamists in the Arab world, are likely to come into close contact sooner or later. Whether they collide or not will depend in part on the extent to which Islamists can transform into a stable factor in regional politics by becoming deeply entrenched in national governing structures.
As long as energy security is not directly threatened, the United States can live with empowered Arab Islamists, just as it has done with the Islamic Republic of Iran for the past three decades. A more lasting and stable understanding can only be achieved if the US modifies its regional policies, in particular its apparently unqualified and unconditional support for Israel.
While it is unrealistic, for the foreseeable future at least, to expect the US to abandon Israel to its fate, a more conditional American support for the Jewish state will go a long way to transforming the underlying geopolitical conditions of the region, with potentially beneficial results for long-term American interests in the Middle East and North Africa.
