Just a couple of days ago, a chorus of analysts - including this one - concluded that Hosni Mubarak was finished. The overall prediction still stands: his regime will never be the same again, and in all likelihood, it is just a matter of time before he goes. However, for now, the Egyptian president, aged 83, seems intent on holding onto power, despite all odds.
"After 62 years in public service, I have had enough. I want to go ... [But] if I resign today, there will be chaos," he said on Thursday evening in an interview with ABC. As for United States President Barack Obama's pressure on him, he claimed that he had told Obama personally: "You don't understand the Egyptian culture and what would happen if I stepped down now."
According to an analyst who prefers to stay anonymous, the wave of mass protests will impact Arab dictatorships much more powerfully than Arab monarchies. Arab monarchies such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia are more stable and resilient in the face of popular unrest, and are specifically less susceptible to subversion by Islamist forces.
This is because they are firmly rooted in a long religious, cultural and political tradition. It helps that most of their rulers claim some form of descent from the Prophet Mohammad - Jordan's current king, for example, claims to be the Prophet's 43rd direct descendent. In the Muslim world, such a genealogy matters.
