1. Barack Obama's achievement: From the day he assumed office, the president of the United States made preventing an Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities a high priority. To prevent a strike, America tightened its supervision of the Israel Defense Forces. The Obama administration expanded aid to Israel for missile defense, but new offensive weapons were provided to Israel only in the form of "forward deployment" in emergency storehouses whose opening requires American approval. Hezbollah has a similar arrangement with its Iranian patrons; only the latter are authorized to allow the use of long-range missiles deployed in Lebanon. This tight supervision has contained Israel, for the time being.
2. Iran's deterrent works: Iran learned the lessons of the bombed nuclear reactors in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007: It dispersed its nuclear facilities to make an air strike more difficult. Even more importantly, it decided to take the war into enemy territory and build a strategic offensive arm against Israel.
3. A dispute at the top: Over the past 10 days, a serious disagreement has emerged among Israel's leadership over the need for and wisdom of attacking Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who promised upon returning to power that he would do everything to prevent the Iranians from gaining nuclear weapons, is sticking to the view that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is Hitler. In his speech on Holocaust Memorial Day, he once again termed Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas "new villains working to destroy the Jewish state" and warned, "The entire world will learn that when Israel and the IDF say never again, we mean every word."
Interim Conclusions: In his upcoming speech to the U.S. Congress, Netanyahu will reiterate his warning that Israel is being threatened with destruction, and as such, it should not be pressured to withdraw from essential territories of the West Bank and transfer them to the hands of the "villains." Hints that he will dispatch the air force on a "never again" mission to Iran if Israel is pushed into the corner are meant to deter Obama from imposing an Israeli-Palestinian settlement.
