War drums against Tehran are beating faster. The noise from Tel Aviv and Western capitals has become so deafening that it could easily reach a tipping point; if Iran sticks to its guns and Israel and its backers are proved to be all bark and no bite, they could lose their deterrence credibility.
Israeli President Shimon Peres said an attack on Iran grows increasingly likely and that was before a damning report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that maintains Iran has been working on nukes since 2003 and has constructed a nuclear detonation system with the help of a Ukrainian nuclear scientist. Unfortunately, the ‘nuclear scientist’ turns out instead to be a researcher in peaceful uses of nanodiamonds.
Iran has accused the IAEA of being an instrument of the US and warns that it will respond with “an iron fist” if attacked. With the memory of the invasion of Iraq and the air campaign against Libya, it’s tempting to dismiss such fiery rhetoric. Moreover, Israelis will, no doubt, bear in mind their country’s ‘successful’ strike on an Iraqi civilian nuclear reactor in 1981 without considering the consequences. Immediately after that air attack, Saddam Hussain summoned his nuclear chiefs to instruct them to build a bomb. If an Iran strike was a video game, Israel and its western allies would be the clear victors but decisions made in the real world come with repercussions.
There are no easy answers. Israel and the West have three options: to live with a nuclear Iran in the same way they have come to terms with Pakistan and North Korea, to use stick and carrot diplomacy to bring Iran into the international fold—or, go for broke with military might risking setting the region ablaze. Those of us who live in the neighbourhood can only pray they’ll choose wisely.
