At one time the Pashtuns, under their political spiritual leader Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan and the very first Afghan President Mohammad Daud Khan, were secular and non-violent; but now the majority has become the most radical Islamist due to the ill-conceived and hazardous path chosen by the players of this intensely contested game. So far, ten years into this latest episode of competition, there is neither a win nor a loss in sight. As a result, the players’ course of actions is creating an atmosphere of distrust, deceit and ultimately future apologetic solicitations due to erroneous acts committed by them. With that in mind, peace to this decades old war is implausible unless there is a viable solution by the Afghans themselves to end this undreamed of quagmire.
The summit in Lisbon last November was suppose to determine NATO’s strategy in Afghanistan, including a timetable for the withdrawal of coalition forces; and a plan to transition responsibility to the Afghan forces by 2014. However, a spat over the strategy erupted in Kabul between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and General David Petraeus. Karzai first and foremost called for the end to night raids—which were dramatically increased by Gen. Petraeus– on Afghan homes, and for American troops to get off Afghan roads. Indeed, this was a call in direct opposition to Petraeus’ strategy in Afghanistan.
Despite U.S. and NATO’s optimistic assessments of the war progress in Kandahar and Helmand, it is hard to judge whether their operations really have the Taliban on the run or whether it’s just the winter that has brought calm. In fact, the brain trust at NWSC asses from past exploits in Afghanistan—the Russian occupation—that it is too early to declare mission accomplished. In either case, the upcoming months will be a litmus test for General Petraeus’ counterinsurgency doctrine.
The list goes on and on for all the failures that Afghanistan has endured including, needless to say, the theatrically corrupt government of Afghanistan. In the same token, the U.S. army “Psy-Ops” operation that was mounted against U.S. senators and other visiting dignitaries in order to win support for more funding, as expressed by Lt. Gen William Caldwell, “How do we get these guys to give us more people?……..What do I have to plant inside their heads?” will not win the war in Afghanistan. In fact, at this crucial and pivotal moment, in its 10th grinding year, with no viable plan on the table that can win the war, there is only a political solution to this quagmire and an indigenous one at that, for an “Afghanistan National Reconciliation” and not a “Karzai-Taliban Reconciliation.”
