Tuesday, November 1, 2011

The Air Has Been Let Out Of The Balloon

Do you hear that sound? It is the sound of Europe being hit with a cold dose of financial reality. The air has been let out of the balloon, and investors all over the world are realizing that absolutely nothing has been solved in Europe. The solutions being proposed by the politicians in Europe are just going to make things worse. You don't solve a sovereign debt crisis by shredding confidence in sovereign debt. But that is exactly what the "voluntary 50% haircut" has done. You don't solve a sovereign debt crisis by pumping up your "bailout fund" with borrowed money from China, Russia and Brazil. More debt is just going to make things even worse down the road. You don't solve a sovereign debt crisis by causing a massive credit crunch. By giving European banks only until June 2012 to dramatically improve their credit ratios, it is going to force many of them to seriously cut back on lending. A massive credit crunch would significantly slow down economic activity in Europe and that is about the last thing that the Europeans need right now. If the deal that was reached last week was the "best shot" that Europe has got, then we are all in for a world of hurt.

As time goes on, there will be more financial casualties. The truth is that someone is going to pay the price for the financial foolishness of these countries in Europe.

Politicians in Europe did not want to increase the "bailout fund" with any of their own money, so they are going to go crawling to China, Russia and Brazil and beg those countries to lend them huge amounts of money.

This is incredibly foolish, and it is already fairly clear that China is going to play hardball with Europe. China has Europe exactly where China wants them, and China will likely demand all sorts of crazy things before they will lend Europe any cash for this bailout fund.